Let the Boys Play Warren

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A Lions tour holds unique and testing demands for the head coach. Foremost among them is combining the talents of the various players into a cohesive and successful team. Warren Gatland has attempted to do that by imposing a rigid game plan on his squad. In theory, that makes utter sense. These players don’t normally play together, so telling them exactly what to do and where to do it simplifies things and prevents confusion on the pitch.

The oft-repeated notion that the cream of four countries should always beat one ignores the fact that the Lions usually have somewhere in the region of six weeks to prepare for the Test series. In rugby, it’s often not about who has the most talent in their team, but rather who is best organised to use that talent. Gatland has certainly arranged his players to play a distinct way and everyone is singing from the same hymn sheet, but at what cost?

By imposing so strict a game plan and demanding his players stick to it, Gatland is denying much of their ability to judge situations for themselves on the pitch. The Lions’ patterns were getting to the point of predictability on Saturday, and the Wallabies defence is starting to look very comfortable with what is being thrown at them.

Gatland’s insistence on smashing the ball up the middle from set piece means the Lions are not even looking for opportunities to attack out wide. When the Lions receive kicks in back field, they’re not even scanning for the possibility of counter-attacking, it’s safety first and launch the garryowen. None of the Lions appear to be even thinking about offloading out of the tackle. This is low risk rugby.

It’s similar to 2009, when the Lions also stuck firmly to their pre-rehearsed game plan of working all the way out to one touch line before coming back the other way. It was certainly anticipated that the Lions would set up in the same manner this time around, but the hope was that Jonny Sexton would be the key difference.

The Irish outhalf is definitely an upgrade on Stephen Jones in terms of attacking spark, but we haven’t seen any evidence of him being backed to display that. His role has been limited to kicking garryowens and popping the ball to his midfield runners.

In attack, the Lions’ game plan is largely based on smashing through the Wallabies defence, but there has been a key man missing. Jamie Roberts is the one guy who consistently gets over the gain line and he has been sorely missed. His return in midfield should improve the Lions’ attacking effort. If Gatland is going to continue to use the same tactics, then his decision to omit Sean O’Brien from the starting team will surely come to an end. Those two guys could make all the difference.

On Saturday, the Lions were six minutes away from winning a Test series for the first time since 1997. They lost by one point and they certainly have a good chance of winning the third Test. Those are the facts and Gatland will not be losing sleep over complaints about the Lions’ playing style. He is there to win a test series, and he feels that this game plan gives them the best chance of doing so.

It’s tempting to call for Gatland to remove the shackles, allow Sexton to fling the ball into wider chanels and ask Halfpenny to counter-attack every time he fields a kick, but it’s not a realistic hope. We should expect more of the same. That said, Gatland needs to allow his decision makers to play what they see. If he is not going to remove the shackles completely, then at least loosening them a little would make the Lions more dangerous in attack.

Lions: Refine or Redesign?

Warren Gatland has some big decisions to make ahead of the second Test. (c) NAFW.

The Lions are 1-0 up and that is the fact that really counts. But this series is far from won and the Lions will need to greatly improve their performance on Saturday if they are to prevent the Wallabies from leveling matters. Warren Gatland’s game plan didn’t work out as hoped in the first Test and the Lions coaching staff will need to think deeply about how they proceed for the second, and the personnel they choose.

The Lions lineout stats make good reading if taken on a purely numerical basis (100%). However, all but one of those takes were at the front, meaning Mike Phillips wasn’t a running threat and the Lions’ backs weren’t getting ideal possession to play with. Ben Mowen and the Wallabies seemed content to give up the front of the lineout in order to mark up in the middle and at the tail. The Lions appeared to fear Mowen’s defensive prowess and refused to even attempt to beat him at the back.

Jonathan Davies had a good game at 12, but he doesn’t offer the same go-forward as Jamie Roberts. If the Lions are going to continue to accept the easy option at the front of the lineout, then Roberts or Tuilagi have to be considered as the starter at 12. Both of them would be stronger at getting over the gain line and providing Sexton with better quality possession. It would be harsh to drop Davies, but he didn’t look ideal for the role of gain line breaker.

On Saturday, the Lions suffered from an inability to beat a strong Australian defence in phase play. Missing Roberts didn’t help in that regard, but the Lions can’t rely on one player to get them on the front foot. A re-think of the back row looks necessary, with getting an explosive ball carrier into the side important. Sean O’Brien is a player you can count on to tie in defenders and make yards. His hard work with ball in hand close in to rucks creates space for the likes of O’Driscoll and North out wide.

A striking aspect of the Lions’ game plan in the first Test was their utter refusal to kick the ball into touch. The only kicking we saw from Sexton were short chips in behind the defence, a couple of cross-field kicks and a few garryowens. Likewise, Mike Phillips kept all his box kicks well infield. Even when the halfbacks had time to clear directly into touch from their own 22, they kept the ball in play. That ploy simply had to be backed up by a consistently strong kick chase, especially when Phillips was kicking so poorly.

Unfortunately, the Lions were far from their best on kick chase on all but a handful of occasions. Again, the return of Roberts should improve that, and Gatland could do worse than bringing Tommy Bowe into the team to add more aerial ability. Whoever it will be chasing down the kicks, the Lions need to re-focus this ploy of kicking back to the Wallabies.

If Roberts is fit, his return would add a lot to the Lions’ play. (c) NAFW

In the second half, the back three of Ioane, Beale and Folau showed signs of their sharp counter-attacking game, with one scything break from Beale after a badly contested Phillips kick standing out. In refining this game plan, Gatland and his halfbacks need to ensure that their kicks are more contestable (particularly Phillips) and that the Lions chase is far stronger. Folau, Ioane and Beale will be better in the second Test and they just can’t be given the space to counter-attack.

All of these things tie into the idea of refining the current game plan and trying to beat the Wallabies with ‘positive’ attacking play and by scoring tries. That is certainly the approach I would favour. It’s definitely understandable if Gatland doesn’t want to change a winning team, but the Wallabies left 14 kickable points behind in the first Test and Gatland can’t rely on that happening again.

The alternative would be a more ‘negative’ approach and is surely tempting to Gatland now that the Lions are 1-0 up. It’s something that the Demented Mole discussed in his/her excellent article on Dan Lydiate. The Welsh blindside would likely be the key personnel change to such a game plan.

The Lions didn’t kick for territorial gain at all in the first Test, but Gatland may consider completely changing to a system based around territory. Bringing in Lydiate would mean having the best back row defender in the Lions squad on the pitch. Asking Sexton to kick deep into the corners, securing lineout possession and eking out penalties with a low-risk attacking plan to allow Halfpenny to kicks the points may be enticing.

Defensively, Lydiate and the back row would be tasked with stifling Will Genia’s creative play, while the centres would aim to limit the amount of ball that gets wide to Folau and co. As expected, the Wallabies look at their most dangerous in open, broken-up play. This possible change of game plan would be about pining the Wallabies deep in their own half and trying to shut down their attacking flair.

My personal preference for open rugby, and desire to see another Test as exciting as the first, means I hope Gatland focuses on refining the game plan from the first Test. Being loyal to the guys who helped him to come away with a win would be laudable, but I certainly feel that the Lions will have a better chance of wrapping up the series if they make changes to the starting team.

On the checklist for refinement are winning ball at the tail of the lineout, adding more carrying punch to the team, clarifying the kicking tactics, adding aerial ability to the kick chase and limiting the counter-attacking opportunities for the Wallabies. A 10% improvement in each of these areas would probably be enough to earn the Lions a first series win since 1997.

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Photos: National Assembly for Wales.

Ferris Cited

Ferris, pictured lining up France's Imanol Harindordoquy in 2009, may miss the game in Paris on Saturday. (c) Liam Coughlan.

Ireland’s Stephen Ferris has been cited, along with Wales’ Bradley Davies, following the yellow cards received by the pair in Sunday’s game. Both players have been cited for foul play under IRB law 10.4(j). This law states:

“Lifting a player from the ground and dropping or driving that player into the ground whilst that player’s feet are still off the ground such that the player’s head and/or upper body come into contact with the ground is dangerous play”.

The hearing will be held tomorrow, Wednesday 8th of February, in London and heard by an Independent Six Nations Disciplinary Committee. Obviously it’s hard to be impartial in a case like this, but watching the video, it’s clear that Davies’ tip-tackle is in a different league to Ferris’ hit. Davies lifts and then drops Donnacha Ryan on to his neck.

If that Davies incident hadn’t taken place, it’s quite likely that Ferris’ tackle would have gone completely unpunished. Watching the Scotland vs. England game, there were a couple of challenges almost identical to Ferris’ tackle that didn’t even warrant notice from referee George Clancy. The Ireland flanker shouldn’t be too worried about the hearing tomorrow. Here’s the video of both incidents which have been cited:

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Photo courtesy:  Liam Coughlan.

Ireland Open with Defeat

Wales were deserved winners at the Aviva. (c) Paul Wallace.

Disappointment will be the major feeling for this Irish team after their 23-21 loss to Wales. That disappointment will be directed at themselves. Wales were the better team at the Aviva and fully deserved to win, regardless of whether or not Wayne Barnes made the correct call on Stephen Ferris’ last-minute tackle. Warren Gatland’s men played all the rugby and their physicality was spectacular at times.

In a strange role reversal of the World Cup quarter-final between these sides, Wales dominated in terms of possession and territory. Ireland struggled to put together phases for extended periods. Once again, this was in part down to Wales’ intelligence at the breakdown. How many times did we see Welsh tacklers and defenders lying on the wrong side of the ruck, slowing down the speed at which Conor Murray could move it away?  Wayne Barnes was particularly tolerant in this aspect of the game, although he did penalise Fergus McFadden for the same offence, allowing Leigh Halfpenny to knock over a penalty.

As pointed out on The Touchline during the week, the breakdown was always going to be one of the key factors in this game. Wales came out on top and this helped them to overcome problems with their lineout. Allied to that was their aggressive line speed in defence. Welsh defensive coach Shaun Edwards has always preached the benefits of a proactive defence and we saw his work at first hand again today.

In complete contrast, Ireland were largely reactive in defence. The shape of Ireland’s defence is almost always good, in that they consistently have the numbers needed to defend any situation. The problem against Wales was that even though the defence was in position, the line speed was not there. Ireland’s first two or three steps up in defence were quick, but then they seemed to sit back on their heels and allow Wales to run at them. Too many times, Wales won the physical collisions. While it’s true that they have some prime specimens, particularly in the backline, that is no excuse.

Wales' Paul James and Jamie Roberts had plenty of reason to smile after an impressive team display. (c) Phil Rogers.

The late withdrawal of Keith Earls didn’t seem to alter the anticipated Welsh game-plan as they continually attacked the 13 channel. Fergus McFadden had an extremely busy day defensively, and must be credited for his 16 tackles. However, the manner in which George North bounced him off for Jon Davies’ second try was disappointing. McFadden went in far too high on the freakishly strong 19-year-old. The tackling for North’s own try was again weak, as he went through three defenders in the left-hand corner.

We must applaud the Welsh skills for their tries. Rhys Priestland’s offload for Davies’ first try was gorgeous and North’s flick after bouncing McFadden was even better. With that flash of creative skill, the prodigy showed his game has more to it than sheer brutishness. Tommy Bowe was completely outplayed by his opposite number, although the Monaghan man did show his fine finishing ability for Ireland’s second try.

The frustrating thing is that both Irish tries showed what this team is capable of doing. They just couldn’t impose themselves over the Welsh enough to do it regularly, the ten minutes where Bradley Davies was in the bin aside. That ten minutes saw Declan Kidney’s men get on top and score through Bowe. Still, the immediate feeling was that they needed to get more than the 5 points they managed in that time. That would prove to be the case as Wales battered their way over through North and then won the game in controversial circumstances.

Would Ferris’ tackle have warranted a penalty and yellow if Davies hadn’t been sent to the bin earlier? Probably not, but it’s beside the point really. An Irish win today would have felt like an escape. Obviously the Irish players would have gladly taken a victory, but would it have been deserved? The euphoria of a win would have masked the deficiencies of this Ireland performance. Surely the end product of combining our undoubtedly strong provinces can produce more than what we saw today? Perhaps it will. This Six Nations is only just underway and it would be foolish to write off Ireland straight away.

Wales won this game because they dominated the physical battle, beat Ireland at the breakdown and produced moments of creative skill at crucial times. Declan Kidney has plenty of improvement to draw from his team and there is a lot they can learn from Wales.

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Photos courtesy:  Paul Wallace, Phil Rogers.