PRO12 Play-Off Race

It's going to be an exciting final three weekends in the PRO12. (c) Sum_of_Marc.

With just three games remaining in the regular PRO12 season, there are still 6 sides with a realistic chance of securing one of the four play-off positions. Leinster and Munster currently occupy two of those slots, with Ulster just a point off 4th place. It’s widely agreed that the PRO12 throws up some poor games mid-season, but at this stage there’s plenty on the line in each of the remaining fixtures. At the other end of the table, the fact that relegation is not an issue means Connacht have nothing but pride to play for.

Let’s take a closer look at each of the Irish province’s league run-ins and rate their chances of qualifying for the play-offs. Three Irish sides in the semi-finals for the second year running would be a brilliant achievement, and further underline our dominance of this league.

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Leinster

Leinster come off the back of their brilliant 34-3 win over the Blues. (c) Ken Bohane.

Current Position: 1st     Points: 68     Remaining Fixtures: Edinburgh (H), Ulster (A), Dragons (A).

Coming into this weekend, Leinster have a ten point lead at the top of the table. Barring a complete disaster (losing all three remaining games without bonus points) they are likely to remain at the summit of the league. A win tonight against Edinburgh at the RDS would make the trip to Ravenhill the following week less important. That Ulster game comes the weekend before the H-Cup semis, so Joe Schmidt may rest some of his front-liners.

Two wins from three would secure top spot for Leinster, while even one win and two losing bonus points might do. The fact that they have only lost 3 of their 19 fixtures so far means Leinster can relax a little more than the other PRO12 sides. It’s difficult for Leinster to put out a weak side these days with so much competition in their squad (just look at tonight’s team). They will confirm top spot and a home semi-final, possibly against Munster or Ulster. What a way to finish the season that would be!

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Munster

Munster are looking to bounce back from defeat to Ulster last weekend. (c) Ivan O'Riordan.

Current Position: 3rd     Points: 56     Remaining Fixtures: Warriors (H), Scarlets (A), Ulster (H).

Munster are two points behind 2nd-placed Ospreys coming into tomorrow’s crucial clash with the Warriors in Musgrave Park. The Scottish side are level on points with Munster, but sit 4th because they have won a game less. Tony McGahan will have to ensure that his side forget about their Heineken Cup disappointment and focus on their potentially tricky PRO12 run-in. The objective will be to finish 2nd. The Ospreys’ run-in looks a little less difficult than Munster’s, with Cardiff away and the Dragons at home next for them. They finish away to Aironi in what will be the Italian side’s last ever fixture. I can see the Italians winning that one.

McGahan and his squad now face three games against direct play-off challengers. Munster are in poor form, having lost three of their last four games in all competitions. They need to bounce back immediately with a win tomorrow, before travelling to the Scarlets. The final regular season game sees a rematch of last weekend’s H-Cup quarter-final with Ulster. Pushing the northern province out of the play-off spots at the final hurdle would be sweet revenge. I’m going for Munster to finish 2nd, level on points with the Ospreys but with one more win than the Welsh side. Here’s the Munster team to face the Warriors.

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Ulster

Ulster now face important games in two competitions. (c) Ivan O'Riordan.

Current Position: 5th     Points: 55     Remaining Fixtures: Connacht (A), Leinster (H), Munster (A).

Ulster’s Heineken Cup progress has been superbly impressive and it will be hard for them to re-focus on the PRO12 after last weekend’s thrilling win over Munster. They travel to Galway tomorrow for a game in which Connacht will fancy their chances. As expected, Brian McLaughlin has made wholesale changes to his team and it remains to be seen how strong Ulster’s second string is. Three inter-provincial derbies is not the ideal way to finish the league season, especially since two of them have play-off ambitions of their own.

It’s quite conceivable that Ulster will lose all three of these games. A Heineken Cup final would be the most perfect consolation. I’m not writing Ulster out of the play-offs just yet, but McLaughlin hasn’t been in this position, balancing his squad out across two competitions at this late stage, before. I can see them  beating Connacht tomorrow but losing narrowly to Leinster and Munster. Ideally, they beat Leinster too and we get three PRO12 semi-finalists. My prediction at this stage is Ulster missing out on the play-offs by a single point.

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Connacht

Connacht can jump a couple of positions up the table with a strong finish. (c) Pierre-Selim.

Current Position: 10th     Points: 29     Remaining Fixtures: Ulster (H), Aironi (H), Warriors (A).

Connacht’s win away to the Dragons last time out was impressive enough to suggest that they will finish the season strongly. They will be keeping an eye on the Heineken Cup too, in the hope that either Leinster or Ulster can win it and secure a 4th qualifier for the Irish sides. The PRO12 is clearly divided into two halves by mid-table side the Blues. In the bottom half, the Dragons, Treviso, Connacht and Edinburgh look to be battling to finish 8th. Connacht’s run-in is quite testing, starting with the visit of Ulster tomorrow (team here).

I can see Connacht taking losing bonus points from Ulster and the Warriors as well as beating Aironi in Galway. If the teams around them play to form, that would probably mean Connacht remaining in 10th. However, the bottom of the table is hard to predict, with these sides’ wins coming out of the blue. Connacht’s final match of the season is away to the Warriors. They could do Ulster and Munster a massive favour by beating the Scottish side. That would probably see Ulster into the play-offs, as well as Connacht into 8th.

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How do you see the remaining three series of fixtures panning out? Do you think we’ll have three Irish sides in the play-offs again? Can Connacht finish out their season with a couple of wins? Comment below with all your views and predictions! I’m going for Leinster, Munster, Ospreys and Warriors in that order for the play-offs and Connacht remaining in 10th at the other end.

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Photos courtesy: Sum_of_Marc, Ken Bohane, Ivan O’Riordan, Pierre-Selim.

PRO12 Returns

The PRO12 returns to the foreground this weekend. (c) Sum_of_Marc.

With the Six Nations done and dusted, it’s time for the provincial game to take the front seat again. Many supportes will be delighted to get back to supporting their home team, especially after the inconsistent Irish displays over the last couple of months. With only 5 games left until the play-offs, Leinster, Munster and Ulster are all well in contention while Connacht are hoping to rise as high as possible in the table. Even with the Irish internationals getting a precious weekend off, there are plenty of big names to whet the appetite.

Leinster are first up on Friday night against the Ospreys. They welcome Brian O’Driscoll and Leo Cullen back into the fold after recovery from shoulder and achilles injuries respectively. The initial prognosis on BOD after his surgery in November was that he could miss the remainder of the season. The fact that he is back already speaks volumes for the man. He is a legend of the game and will play a huge part as Leinster look for PRO12 and Heineken Cup glory.

Captain Cullen coming back into the mix on the same day that Brad Thorn is set to make his Leinster debut is more good news. Leinster have been stretched for numbers in the second-row department in recent times, but now look well-stocked. Thorn’s obvious pedigree should help Leinster maintain, and possibly improve, the high standards they have set for themselves over the last few years.

Drico is back for Leinster, rejoice! (c) Art Widak.

On Saturday afternoon Ulster are in Italy to take on Treviso. Sitting 5th, just one place off the play-offs, Brian McLaughlin’s men face a tough run-in. This Treviso game and Aironi at home the weekend after are must-wins. Ulster’s final three games are away to Connacht, home to Leinster and away to Munster. Not ideal. After a good first half to the season Treviso have faded away and are no longer in contention for the play-offs. Clearly, a win for Ulster is essential.

Darren Cave and captain Johann Muller make their returns from injury to give Ulster a lift. Cave’s foot injury was unfortunately-timed in the build-up to the Six Nations as he was in excellent form. He’ll be looking to pick right up where he left off in a bid to secure a place on Ireland’s tour to New Zealand this summer.

Finally, on Saturday evening it’s the big derby in Galway, Connacht vs. Munster. Tony McGahan’s side come into the game placed 2nd, on course for a home play-off. Connacht are at the other end of the scale in 10th, just 5 points off the bottom. It would appear that Munster have more to play for, but this is exactly the type of game that Eric Elwood and his team will have targeted for a win. Expect another ferocious battle in front of a capacity crowd at the Sportsground.

O'Leary is back for Munster's derby with Galway. (c) Ivan O'Riordan.

There’s been plenty of positive news coming from Connacht relating to next season’s squad, which we will look at in more depth over the next few days. For now, minds will be focused on this term’s run-in. Elwood will be keen to at least match last year’s 9th-place finish and 7 wins. With only 4 wins registered up to this point, a good finishing streak is needed. Home fixtures against Munster, Aironi and Ulster offer hope, as well as the clash away to the Dragons. Here’s the Connacht team.

Munster will be unconcerned with aiding their nieghbours’ positive finale to the season. They are focused on securing that crucial home spot for the play-offs in May. Ireland squad members Damian Varley and Tomas O’Leary are involved this weekend. O’Leary will be keen to get straight back into action after his involvement at Twickenham. Meanwhile, David Wallace and Felix Jones both continue their resurgence after long-term injuries.

The underestimated PRO12 is often demeaned as a dull league when pitted against the Heineken Cup and Six Nations. However, it’s vitally important to the game in Ireland, and gives our talented youngsters a chance to get on the pitch. With just 5 games left, Leinster look safe at the top of the table. Behind them, there are 6 teams, including Munster and Ulster, with realistic hopes of a play-off place. Further down, a successful run-in for Connacht could give them their best-ever final position. Plenty of reasons to tune in.

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Friday 23rd March

Leinster vs. Ospreys @ The RDS. Kickoff – 19.05 (RTE2)

Saturday 24th March

Treviso vs. Ulster @ Stadio di Monigo. Kickoff – 15.15 (BBCNI)

Connacht vs. Munster @ Sportsgrounds. Kickoff – 19.45 (TG4)

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Photos courtesy: Sum_of_Marc, Ivan O’Riordan, Art Widak.

PRO12 Preview: Leinster vs. Aironi

Luke Fitz is back for Leinster. (c) Art Widak.

Friday 2nd March, 18.00 (Italian TV)

Luke Fitzgerald makes a welcome return to the Leinster team tomorrow night having fully recovered from the neck injury that has kept him out for almost two months. Alongside him in the back-three is 20-year-old Andrew Conway,  just back from a spell on the sidelines himself. Fionn Carr, Ian Madigan and Brendan Macken all feature in an exciting backline. Shane Jennings captains the side from the back-row. It’s a heavyweight Leinster pack with the likes of Richardt Strauss, Rhys Ruddock and Nathan White all starting. With Isa Nacewa riding pine, it will be interesting to see Madigan take over on place-kicking duty.

Aironi have made four changes to the side which went down 10-9 to the Dragons last weekend following a last minute penalty try. Italy international Giulio Toniolatti comes in at fullback while Riccardo Pavan is selected on the right wing. Up front, injury rules out ex-Munster No.8 Nick Williams. As a result, 23-year-old Italian international Simone Favaro starts at 7, with Nicola Cattina and the experienced Josh Sole shuffling positions in the back-row. George Biagi replaces Joshua Furno in the second-row.

This is a bottom vs. top clash, with Leinster 11 points clear at the summit of the PRO12 table. Aironi are languishing at the foot of the table, 8 points behind 11th-placed Edinburgh. The Italian team have only won 3 games in the league this season, as well as losing all 6 of their Heineken Cup pool games. After last weekend’s 10-10 draw in Glasgow, this is a well-timed opportunity for Leinster to get back to winning ways. They should have far too much pace and ability for Aironi. Verdict: Bonus-point win for Leinster.

Aironi: 15 Giulio Toniolatti, 14 Riccardo Pavan, Roberto Quartaroli 13, 12 Gabriel Pizarro, 11 Sinoti Sinoti, 10 Naas Olivier, 9 Tito Tebaldi, 8 Josh Sole, 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Nicola Cattina; 5 Carlo Del Fava, 4 George Biagi, 3 Lorenzo Romano, 2 Roberto Santamaria (cap), 1 Matias Aguero.                                         Subs: 16 Fabio Ongaro, 17 Alberto De Marchi , 18 Salvatore Perugini, 19 Redolfini Luca, Filippo Ferrarini 20, 21 Tyson Keats, 22 Luciano Orquera, 23 Gilberto Pavan.

Leinster: 15 Luke Fitzgerald, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Eoin O’Malley, 12 Brendan Macken, 11 Fionn Carr, 10 Ian Madigan, 9 Isaac Boss, 8 Rhys Ruddock, 7 Shane Jennings (capt.), 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Damian Browne, 3 Nathan White, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Heinke van der Merwe.                                Subs: 16 Aaron Dundon, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Jamie Hagan, 19 Leo Auva’a, 20 Dominic Ryan, 21 John Cooney, 22 Noel Reid, 23 Isa Nacewa.

Referee: Andrew Macpherson (Scotland).

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Photo copyright:  Art Widak.

Life After BOD

Photo via MD+D

News that Brian O’Driscoll is to undergo surgery on a long-standing shoulder injury, and thus most likely miss the entire 2012 Six Nations as well as Leinster’s Heineken Cup defence is a cruel blow to all Irish rugby fans. Both Ireland and Leinster will greatly miss the legendary centre. However, the rest of this season will offer rugby fans in this country a glimpse of life after BOD. The question of who will replace O’Driscoll when the Six Nations kicks off in February is an intriguing one. Here, we look at some of the options Declan Kidney has in filling the 13 jersey.

The loyal Kidney will almost certainly look within his current squad for options. Keith Earls is the most obvious in this regard.  He will miss the next six weeks due to the knee injury suffered against Leinster. He will hope to be back in Heineken Cup action as soon as possible. If Earls can get some game time at 13 for Munster this season, it will obviously increase his chances of replacing O’Driscoll in the centre. Many supporters have always seen Earls as the long-term heir to O’Driscoll.

However, most of his provincial and international rugby has been played on the wing and at full-back. Earls will need more exposure to the outside centre role with Munster to convince Kidney. With Earls’ pace, evasiveness and finishing ability, he is an attacking threat no matter where he togs out. It will be hard for any player to match O’Driscoll in terms of his defence, and this is where Earls will have to prove himself. The 13 channel can be particularly difficult to defend, something which hasn’t been too obvious with O’Driscoll’s supremacy there.

Earls’ fellow World Cup winger, Tommy Bowe, has played at 13 for the Ospreys, and once for the Lions in 2009. While these appearances in the centre have been limited, Bowe has shown that he is more than capable of holding his own there. Kidney will certainly consider unleashing Bowe’s powerful running game from further infield.

Photo via MD+D

Similarly to Earls, Bowe has not been consistently tested in the position at the top-level, making only fleeting appearances there. If Bowe were to get an extended run in the centre for the Ospreys then it would offer Kidney a taste of his ability there. However, Bowe’s natural position is on the wing and he remains a lethal threat from there. The Ospreys will not be inclined to move Bowe into the centre merely to serve the Irish management’s interests.

Andrew Trimble is another member of Kidney’s squad who may be considered in the centre positions. Trimble has played most of his rugby for Ireland on the wing. Once again, Trimble may have limited chances playing in the centre for his province, and so, little chance to convince Declan Kidney that he is a viable option here. Earls or Bowe would be the more obvious candidates to move inside, with Trimble replacing either of them on the wing.

Kidney must also look at players with less international experience. One of these players is Fergus McFadden, who will see himself as favourite to become Leinster’s outside centre with O’Driscoll out injured. This opportunity of an extended run in Leinster’s first 15 is one that McFadden’s potential has been crying out for. The Kilkenny-born centre is now 25 and will relish this chance.

McFadden has had even more limited exposure at international level but has acquitted himself well at every chance. He was voted MVP (Most Valuable Player) of the 2009 Churchill Cup after some highly impressive performances during Ireland ‘A’s victory at that tournament. McFadden now has six full Irish caps after appearing, and scoring a try, against Russia at the Rugby World Cup. A try-scoring appearance on the wing against France in the 2011 Six Nations also marked McFadden’s ability to step up to international level.

The 92kg centre will be eager to impress for Leinster in the pool stages of the Heineken Cup, starting with next Saturday’s trip to Montpellier. McFadden offers defensive solidity, a surprising turn of pace and is a viable goal kicking option behind Jonny Sexton or Ronan O’Gara. As things stand, he is surely the favourite to take O’Driscoll’s place on February 5^th against Wales at the Aviva.

Ulster’s Darren Cave is another candidate and a player who has shown rich promise in the past. Cave was a member of the Irish U-20 Grand Slam winning team of 2007. He was voted Ulster’s Young Player of the Year in 2009.  Cave suffered an injury-disrupted 2010/2011 season so he will be raring to go for Ulster’s Heineken Cup campaign. If the outside centre can return to form in the coming months then he will hope to add to his single Irish cap.

The fact that Cave had such an injury-ravaged year last season allowed young Nevin Spence to showcase his talents in the 13 jersey for Ulster. The 21-year-old had a fantastic season culminating in being voted the IRUPA Young Player of the Year. His good form led to two caps for the Irish Wolfhounds where he showed his ability with a devastating break to set up a Denis Hurley try in the 20-11 win over the English Saxons.

Other young centres such as Munster’s Danny Barnes, Ulster’s Luke Marshall and Leinster’s Eoin O’Malley most likely fall into this category too. The youngsters, 22, 20 and 23 respectively, have all shown up well for their provinces when given the opportunity. However, like Spence, they all face a battle for a starting place in their provinces’ first-choice 15.

Barnes and O’Malley are better placed than Marshall, who is currently out injured. Barnes will hope to stave off the competition of Munster’s new signing, Will Chambers, for the 13 shirt. The New-Zealand born Kerryman will look to build on a confident, try-scoring start to his Munster career.

Meanwhile, O’Malley will probably be in competition with McFadden for Leinster’s outside centre berth, but he has shown exciting talent when given the opportunity. An elusive player with ball in hand as well as an intelligent defender, he is a dark horse right now but as we have seen with the likes of Conor Murray things can change quickly in professional rugby.

For the time being, all of these players will be engrossed on their provinces’ RaboDirect PRO12 and Heineken Cup campaigns. However, with the news on O’Driscoll, these players will surely keep the vacant Irish 13 jersey at the back of their minds. With Gordon D’Arcy’s form in the past year or so appearing to wane, perhaps Declan Kidney will even consider a completely new centre pairing. Clearly, the motivation is there for these young Irish centres to fulfill their potential and attempt to step their careers up to the next level.

 

Photos courtesy: MD+D